I have no idea. I don't know what the direction of this offseason is, or if there is one at all. Although Kenny has expressed interest in getting younger, faster, and cheaper, I'm not sure what he is looking for. By getting cheaper, does he mean getting better? Subtracting Jermaine Dye, and inserting a somewhat legitimate defensive outfielder in his place would make the team both cheaper and better. Unfortunately, ditching Nick Swisher for thirty cents on the dollar eradicated any hope of an internal replacement -- unless Kenny feels Brian Anderson is a fit in CF while Jerry Owens mans LF (with Carlos Quentin shifting to RF. If that's the case, God help us. Owens is, at best, a replacement level ballplayer, and in a corner position he is fodder. With Swisher gone, I don't see Dye on the move.
Rather, I believe Javier Vazquez will be the odd man out, unfortunately. His return will be better than Swisher's, to be sure, but not so much better that it will justify trading him. While his peripherals overrate his ability, his more mainstream statistics seem to undervalue his contributions. Although durability is overrated in certain instances (see: Jon Garland), Vazquez provides both durability and upside for above average performance at a decent price. With attendance down a decent amount in 2008, and a general uncertainty about the state of the economy, I don't expect the payroll to rise; if anything, it will drop. Whatever the return for Vazquez will probably go a long way in plugging any holes on the major league roster, so there's no reason to anticipate any highly touted minor leaguers in the deal.
As for the rotation, it looks anything but stable at this point. Chris DeLuca has been insisting all offseason that Vazquez will be gone, so there's been reasonable speculation that he's pitched his last game on the Southside. With only Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd penciled in at this point, two spots need to be filled (assuming the loss of Javier). Clayton Richard may have earned one spot with his pitching in the postseason, and the other will more than likely be given to a veteran with a decent track record and a tiny contract. Expecting Aaron Poreda up on the 25 man before June is unreasonable, and no one else in the minors can fill the void.
The winter meetings are fast approaching, as of now, the depth chart appears to be:
C: AJ Pierzynski, Cole Armstrong
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Chris Getz, Jayson Nix
SS: Alexei Ramirez
3B: Wilson Betemit, Josh Fields
LF: Quentin
CF: Owens, Anderson, DeWayne Wise
RF: Dye
SP: Danks
SP: Buehrle
SP: Floyd
SP: Vazquez
SP: Richard
RP: Bobby Jenks
RP: Matt Thornton
RP: Scott Linebrink
RP: Octavio Dotel
RP: Adam Russell
RP: DJ Carrasco
RP: Aaron Poreda
RP: Joe Torres
RP: Derek Rodriguez
At this point, lots of spots either need to be filled or solidified. While I'd no doubt prefer to see a legit CF/3B, this team, as built, has 86-88 win potential. Unfortunately, that potential comes with the caveat of a rather limited ceiling. Not many guys will take giant leaps forward, and if anything, guys will regress from last season. This team would look so much better with Swisher...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Evaluating the Market
With the trade deadline approaching on Thursday, what can the White Sox do to improve a roster they've ridden to a three and a half game lead over the Minnesota Twins? A flurry of moves in the past week have brought a different look to the 25 man roster. Scott Linebrink, Jose Contreras, and Joe Crede were all placed on the fifteen day disabled list recently, and Adam Russell was optioned to Charlotte. Their replacements? Clayton Richard, Josh Fields, D.J. Carrasco and Ehren Wasserman. That leaves the current lineup as follows:
SS: Orlando Cabrera
C: A.J. Pierzynski
LF: Carlos Quentin
RF: Jermaine Dye
DH: Jim Thome
1B: Paul Konerko
CF: Nick Swisher
3B: Fields
2B: Alexei Ramirez
C: Toby Hall
OF: Brian Anderson
OF: DeWayne Wise
IF: Juan Uribe
First of all, thank God for Swisher and Uribe. Their versatility has made the current roster a hell of a lot more convenient. Uribe's ability to play three infield positions well and Swisher's ability to back up first base has allowed Ozzie Guillen to be a little creativity in lineup construction. The lineup is obviously not ideal, as the only players thriving in their roles are Ramirez, Quentin, and Dye. That being said, there aren't a lot of positions that can be upgraded. Cabrera's defense has been too valuable at SS, and moving Ramirez, a slightly above average second baseman, to a more difficult position in the middle of a pennant race would be short-sighted and detrimental. Cabrera also could net two compensation picks in return for his inevitable exit from Chicago after the season.
The only offensive name that makes sense is Atlanta outfielder Mark Kotsay. While his name has been mentioned sparingly in trade talks, he'd be a good fit in CF against righties. He'd make much more sense than Wise. It wouldn't take much to acquire him, and nothing that the White Sox would give up would hurt the system too much. Kotsay's slash stats against righties are solid: .303/.355/.447. This would allow for Swisher to move to first, as it appears Konerko's confidence is at an all-time low. With the trade deadline fast approaching, Kenny Williams will be forced to make an immediate decision on Konerko. Betting on a resurgence might be too risky at this point, and splitting his time with Kotsay may allow for more rest and better production.
SS: Orlando Cabrera
C: A.J. Pierzynski
LF: Carlos Quentin
RF: Jermaine Dye
DH: Jim Thome
1B: Paul Konerko
CF: Nick Swisher
3B: Fields
2B: Alexei Ramirez
C: Toby Hall
OF: Brian Anderson
OF: DeWayne Wise
IF: Juan Uribe
First of all, thank God for Swisher and Uribe. Their versatility has made the current roster a hell of a lot more convenient. Uribe's ability to play three infield positions well and Swisher's ability to back up first base has allowed Ozzie Guillen to be a little creativity in lineup construction. The lineup is obviously not ideal, as the only players thriving in their roles are Ramirez, Quentin, and Dye. That being said, there aren't a lot of positions that can be upgraded. Cabrera's defense has been too valuable at SS, and moving Ramirez, a slightly above average second baseman, to a more difficult position in the middle of a pennant race would be short-sighted and detrimental. Cabrera also could net two compensation picks in return for his inevitable exit from Chicago after the season.
The only offensive name that makes sense is Atlanta outfielder Mark Kotsay. While his name has been mentioned sparingly in trade talks, he'd be a good fit in CF against righties. He'd make much more sense than Wise. It wouldn't take much to acquire him, and nothing that the White Sox would give up would hurt the system too much. Kotsay's slash stats against righties are solid: .303/.355/.447. This would allow for Swisher to move to first, as it appears Konerko's confidence is at an all-time low. With the trade deadline fast approaching, Kenny Williams will be forced to make an immediate decision on Konerko. Betting on a resurgence might be too risky at this point, and splitting his time with Kotsay may allow for more rest and better production.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Positional Previews: Third Base pt. 1
And now we find ourselves with the most hotly debated and interesting positional battle for the 2008 Chicago White Sox - Josh Fields or Joe Crede? Did Fields display enough offensive firepower to overcome his below average defense? Could Joe Crede possibly come back strong from back surgery and return to his maddeningly average production of the past?
I must start off by saying I am extremely biased in this debate - as I have long disliked Joe and long loved Josh. Crede has been one of my least favorite players on the team since 2003. Joe's light bat and lack of discipline at the plate was infuriating. Despite his reliable defense, I always wanted the White Sox to find a player with more upside at the position.
When Kenny Williams took Fields with the 18th pick in the 2004 draft, it was clear that he felt Crede was not a guarantee to man the hot corner on the Southside for the entirety of his career. Perhaps it was his lack of production at the big league level, or it was the presence of super agent Scott Boras - something forced Williams to invest in reinforcements for the homegrown fan favorite.
After the world series run in 2005, and the following deifying of Crede, many expected him to be signed long term. But Williams did not budge, insisting to go year to year on Crede until he hit free agency. Boras, renowned for his insistence on all of his players testing the market, was not interested in a discounted deal that would buy out some of Joe's free agency. Crede had the best year of his career in 2006, hitting .283/.323/.506. His maddening lack of plate discipline stuck out like a sore thumb. Still, Joe won the silver slugger over Alex Rodriguez and the other AL 3rd basemen.
Fields, meanwhile, was enjoying his first season in the International League with the Charlotte Knights. Posting an impressive .304/.373/.513 line, Fields earned a September call up and consideration for the future. Entering 2007, there was talk of Fields eventually shifting to LF to accommodate Crede. But shifting Fields to LF takes away all of his value, as his offense is much more valuable at the hot corner than at the corner OF spots.
When Crede was lost for the year in June, Fields was called up to get a look in what was already a hopeless season. After struggling mightily in his first month (.218/.274/.333), Fields caught fire in July (.265/.333/.490). His slugging percentage rose every month and he displayed the type of progression that bodes well for his major league future. Josh played LF for almost a month and looked absolutely lost - prompting a return to 3B in the last week of the season. His lack of ability in the OF was on full display and he was not conditioned for OF work. The consensus was then to let Fields improve at 3B, now and for the future.
So now the speculation has run rampant. Talks of Crede to the Giants for Noah Lowry (yes, he of the 1:1 K/BB ratio) have hit the press. I wouldn't take Lowry, I'd rather fill the bullpen in Birmingham with 1-2 B- prospects than pay Lowry to put up numbers Lance Broadway could replicate.
Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion that Joe will be starting at 3B on opening day. I hope I'm wrong...
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Third Base pt. 2 - why Crede should be moved. What would he bring back? What are the projections for each player?
-----
Cubs Sign Cintron...aaaaaaaahahaha
Ramirez Ready to Play
Fields Arrives Early to Camp
Anderson Wants to Play
The Daily Herald Beats a Dead Horse
I must start off by saying I am extremely biased in this debate - as I have long disliked Joe and long loved Josh. Crede has been one of my least favorite players on the team since 2003. Joe's light bat and lack of discipline at the plate was infuriating. Despite his reliable defense, I always wanted the White Sox to find a player with more upside at the position.
When Kenny Williams took Fields with the 18th pick in the 2004 draft, it was clear that he felt Crede was not a guarantee to man the hot corner on the Southside for the entirety of his career. Perhaps it was his lack of production at the big league level, or it was the presence of super agent Scott Boras - something forced Williams to invest in reinforcements for the homegrown fan favorite.
After the world series run in 2005, and the following deifying of Crede, many expected him to be signed long term. But Williams did not budge, insisting to go year to year on Crede until he hit free agency. Boras, renowned for his insistence on all of his players testing the market, was not interested in a discounted deal that would buy out some of Joe's free agency. Crede had the best year of his career in 2006, hitting .283/.323/.506. His maddening lack of plate discipline stuck out like a sore thumb. Still, Joe won the silver slugger over Alex Rodriguez and the other AL 3rd basemen.
Fields, meanwhile, was enjoying his first season in the International League with the Charlotte Knights. Posting an impressive .304/.373/.513 line, Fields earned a September call up and consideration for the future. Entering 2007, there was talk of Fields eventually shifting to LF to accommodate Crede. But shifting Fields to LF takes away all of his value, as his offense is much more valuable at the hot corner than at the corner OF spots.
When Crede was lost for the year in June, Fields was called up to get a look in what was already a hopeless season. After struggling mightily in his first month (.218/.274/.333), Fields caught fire in July (.265/.333/.490). His slugging percentage rose every month and he displayed the type of progression that bodes well for his major league future. Josh played LF for almost a month and looked absolutely lost - prompting a return to 3B in the last week of the season. His lack of ability in the OF was on full display and he was not conditioned for OF work. The consensus was then to let Fields improve at 3B, now and for the future.
So now the speculation has run rampant. Talks of Crede to the Giants for Noah Lowry (yes, he of the 1:1 K/BB ratio) have hit the press. I wouldn't take Lowry, I'd rather fill the bullpen in Birmingham with 1-2 B- prospects than pay Lowry to put up numbers Lance Broadway could replicate.
Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion that Joe will be starting at 3B on opening day. I hope I'm wrong...
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Third Base pt. 2 - why Crede should be moved. What would he bring back? What are the projections for each player?
-----
Cubs Sign Cintron...aaaaaaaahahaha
Ramirez Ready to Play
Fields Arrives Early to Camp
Anderson Wants to Play
The Daily Herald Beats a Dead Horse
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Positional Previews: Shortstop
On November 20, 2007, the Chicago White Sox shipped Jon Garland to the Los Angeles Angels for Orlando Cabrera. The move was widely criticized by many Sox fans, as they had fallen in love with Garland during his back to back 18 win seasons in 2005 and 2006. Many had figured any deal involving Garland would bring back 1-2 major league ready prospects and more minor league talent. With his low K rate and one year left on his contract, Garland's value was much lower than originally thought. As a one for one swap (with the Angels throwing in $1.5 million)it was an alright move, as Cabrera should garner Type A status while Garland will most likely be Type B. The move looked poor as it came soon after Juan Uribe was resigned. As expected Kenny Williams is having trouble finding a suitor for Uribe, as not many teams find his lazy defense and poor offense attractive at the price tag. The Orioles are rumored to be scouting Uribe this spring. As Rotoworld reported this morning:
The return shouldn't exceed what was had in the deal for Tadahito Iguchi last July.
Where Williams could go wrong is inking Cabrera to an extension - as the 33 year old shortstop is a sure bet to decline rapidly in the next three years. Letting him walk and reaping the draft picks is undoubtedly the best decision. With Alexei Ramirez waiting in the wings, it would be a good move to let him move on to another team willing to pay an aging shortstop.
With the job firmly in Cabrera's hands, what are reasonable expectations for his production?
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
At the very least, Cabrera bested Garland in WARP - as Garland's was only 3.4. This is a very frightening projection, as an OPS that low is a frightening proposition. His comps were extremely interesting, and aren't worth mentioning.
ZiPS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
I hope this is an off year for the guys at BTF - but I have my doubts. This is extremely pessimistic, but what else is there to expect from a 33 year old shortstop coming off a career year. Regression to the mean exemplified.
Marcels (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Ouch. That hurts. They rank his OPS behind such infamous hitting machines as Ryan Theriot, Jack Wilson, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Eckstein. If that is his line, we better hope and pray for a generous Elias Sports Bureau.
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Much like Marcels - ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch. This line just screams no. 9 hitter. We would have been better off picking up Adam Everett for peanuts.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
I'm sensing a pattern. Why Kenny, why? And to think there were rumors in the summer about a Garland for Edgar Renteria swap. Oy veigh.
Are the White Sox better off with Cabrera? Not sure. I'm not sure I'll ever know.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Third Base - who will start - Josh Fields or Joe Crede?
-----
Cooper Optimistic About Sox
MacDougal Can Still be Sent Down
Greg Norton Signed by Mariners
The Chicago Tribune reports that the Orioles "will scout" Juan Uribe in case they aren't ready to make Luis Hernandez their starting shortstop.
Hernandez is first in line to replace Miguel Tejada, but there's little in his minor league track record to suggest that he'd be anything but one of the league's worst hitters. Uribe is no great shakes either at this point and his defense has slipped, but he may look like the more appealing option by the end of camp. Feb. 14 - 10:34 am et
Source: Chicago Tribune
The return shouldn't exceed what was had in the deal for Tadahito Iguchi last July.
Where Williams could go wrong is inking Cabrera to an extension - as the 33 year old shortstop is a sure bet to decline rapidly in the next three years. Letting him walk and reaping the draft picks is undoubtedly the best decision. With Alexei Ramirez waiting in the wings, it would be a good move to let him move on to another team willing to pay an aging shortstop.
With the job firmly in Cabrera's hands, what are reasonable expectations for his production?
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
.269/.323/.372/.695/8.1/4.2
At the very least, Cabrera bested Garland in WARP - as Garland's was only 3.4. This is a very frightening projection, as an OPS that low is a frightening proposition. His comps were extremely interesting, and aren't worth mentioning.
ZiPS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
.276/.330/.372/.702
I hope this is an off year for the guys at BTF - but I have my doubts. This is extremely pessimistic, but what else is there to expect from a 33 year old shortstop coming off a career year. Regression to the mean exemplified.
Marcels (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.273/.330/.393/.723
Ouch. That hurts. They rank his OPS behind such infamous hitting machines as Ryan Theriot, Jack Wilson, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Eckstein. If that is his line, we better hope and pray for a generous Elias Sports Bureau.
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.276/.332/.394/.726
Much like Marcels - ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch. This line just screams no. 9 hitter. We would have been better off picking up Adam Everett for peanuts.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.273/.326/.383/.709
I'm sensing a pattern. Why Kenny, why? And to think there were rumors in the summer about a Garland for Edgar Renteria swap. Oy veigh.
Are the White Sox better off with Cabrera? Not sure. I'm not sure I'll ever know.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Third Base - who will start - Josh Fields or Joe Crede?
-----
Cooper Optimistic About Sox
MacDougal Can Still be Sent Down
Greg Norton Signed by Mariners
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Positional Previews: Second Base pt. 2
Is there any reason on earth to not anoint Danny Richar the starting 2nd baseman on the 2008 Chicago White Sox? Are there really people out there who believe that Juan Uribe deserves a spot on the roster, let alone starting at 2nd base? Sadly, those people appear to be in management.
"It's an open competition," said White Sox general manager Ken Williams of the battle for second base. "In being consistent with what we are trying to do, we are looking for a player who helps give [manager] Ozzie [Guillen] the best chance to get off to a good start. The player who fits in best wins the job."
If you can stomach reading the article, written almost a month ago, company shill Scott Merkin actually uses Hawk's awful argument that Juan "can carry a team with his bat." That is about the falsest thing I've ever heard. Maybe in April-May of 2004 Uribe carried the White Sox, but since then he has been an abysmal performer. Richar is not guaranteed to be a league average player, but his upside is much higher than Juan's. With Uribe, what you see is what you get - the guy is consistently terrible outside of that smoke and mirrors .833 OPS season he had in 2004. So what are the projections?
*Note: In previous posts I have forgotten to include ZiPS - that will no longer be the case. I will go back and edit those as well. I also only show Plate Appearances if there is reason to - i.e. a significant difference that is the result of a projected injury or playing time issues.
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
ZiPS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
MARCELS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Who should start? Richar, Richar, Richar, Richar, Richar! It is a simple decision. PECOTA projects his defense to be absolutely abysmal, but I anticipate he would outperform Uribe at 2b. Uribe's arm wouldn't mean much from that distance.
I expect Alexei Ramirez to be in the mix sometime soon - just not now. He needs to get his feet wet in Birmingham/Charlotte this season. I suspect we'll be hearing from him at SS in 2009. I'll analyze his PECOTA line in the preview for SS.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: SS - was Orlando Cabrera the right guy? Will he be here for more than one season? What about Ramirez?
-----
Season preview from Indiana paper
Tribune article on offense
Typical Merkin knob-slobbing of offseason
"It's an open competition," said White Sox general manager Ken Williams of the battle for second base. "In being consistent with what we are trying to do, we are looking for a player who helps give [manager] Ozzie [Guillen] the best chance to get off to a good start. The player who fits in best wins the job."
If you can stomach reading the article, written almost a month ago, company shill Scott Merkin actually uses Hawk's awful argument that Juan "can carry a team with his bat." That is about the falsest thing I've ever heard. Maybe in April-May of 2004 Uribe carried the White Sox, but since then he has been an abysmal performer. Richar is not guaranteed to be a league average player, but his upside is much higher than Juan's. With Uribe, what you see is what you get - the guy is consistently terrible outside of that smoke and mirrors .833 OPS season he had in 2004. So what are the projections?
*Note: In previous posts I have forgotten to include ZiPS - that will no longer be the case. I will go back and edit those as well. I also only show Plate Appearances if there is reason to - i.e. a significant difference that is the result of a projected injury or playing time issues.
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
Richar - .260/.315/.415/.730/9.8/3.5 (589 PA)It should be noted that Uribe's WARP is skewed by his defensive ratings, which have him performing well at SS. Uribe's defensive value falls through the floor with a move to 2B, as his strong arm is wasted from the keystone position. I see this as a fair assessment of both players, and I expect Richar to possibly outperform that. I could easily see Uribe miss the mark on his numbers and put up a line of .220/.270/.390 that will officially bounce him out of the organization. How much does Danny make? league minimum. How much will Juan make? $4.5 million. Unbelievable.
Uribe - .249/.299/.419/.718/7.2/4.0 (463 PA)
ZiPS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .249/.304/.381/.685This is exceedingly pessimistic of Richar, as he showed an extreme jump in slugging in the month of September. His August numbers would justify such a projection, but not his September stats. This is exceedingly optimistic of Uribe, as he hasn't posted an OPS that high since 2004 - in his aforementioned one hit wonder year. I will eat my hat if either happens.
Uribe - .250/.302/.427/.729
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .252/.304/.401/.705More Richar pessimism met with more Uribe optimism. Perhaps I should send video of Uribe swinging a baseball bat to these fellas. Again - I. will. eat. my. hat.
Uribe - .247/.298/.419/.717
MARCELS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .258/.326/.435/.761Amazingly high projection for Richar, and I can see it happening. His isoD is impressive - and I think it aligns well with his P/PA last season. Uribe with a more rational projection, as I expect something in that range.
Uribe - .244/.290/.412/.702
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .277/.338/.451/.788I'd be shocked if that projection is not higher than PECOTA's 90th percentile for Richar. That would be an absolute hell of a year for Richar. More of the same for Uribe - low OBP with a decent SLG. There's a pattern here, and it is very easy to follow.
Uribe - .246/.294/.429/.723
Who should start? Richar, Richar, Richar, Richar, Richar! It is a simple decision. PECOTA projects his defense to be absolutely abysmal, but I anticipate he would outperform Uribe at 2b. Uribe's arm wouldn't mean much from that distance.
I expect Alexei Ramirez to be in the mix sometime soon - just not now. He needs to get his feet wet in Birmingham/Charlotte this season. I suspect we'll be hearing from him at SS in 2009. I'll analyze his PECOTA line in the preview for SS.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: SS - was Orlando Cabrera the right guy? Will he be here for more than one season? What about Ramirez?
-----
Season preview from Indiana paper
Tribune article on offense
Typical Merkin knob-slobbing of offseason
Friday, February 8, 2008
Positional Previews: Second Base pt. 1
On June 16, 2007, Kenny Williams sent minor league outfielder Aaron Cunningham to the Diamondbacks for Danny Richar. Richar was in the midst of a pretty good season in AAA for Diamondback affiliate Tucson. Cunningham was emerging as one of the top talents in the White Sox organization. His scouting report in January of 2007 was as follows:
Christina Kahrl later compared him to Jeff Abbott after the trade - citing his need to add more power, lest he want turn into another forgotten minor league hitting machine.
Richar was blocked by Mark Reynolds, Alberto Callaspo, and Orlando Hudson. There was no room for him, and the Diamondbacks squeezed some value out of him. Cunningham impressed many with the Diamondbacks in 2007, but was shipped to Oakland in the Danny Haren trade.
Joe Sheehan recently said Cunningham may be the best OF in the A's system.
So after giving up the now highly touted Aaron Cunningham to acquire Danny Richar, how can the White Sox not play him in 2008? I have a bad feeling that Ozzie Guillen will find a way. As he showed with Brian Anderson, Ozzie has no problem benching young players in need of MLB AB for below average players (Exhibit A) or out of position bench players (Exhibit B).
I'm horribly disturbed by the idea that the White Sox may give Juan Uribe another opportunity to prove that 2004 was a humongous fluke. Against all sanity, Uribe is said to be in an open competition with Richar and Alexei Ramirez at second base.
Ramirez needs some seasoning before making his big league debut, and should start in either Birmingham or Charlotte. He could debut in June if he tears up the minors, but I'd rather try to maximize his value at SS or CF.
This organization is in no condition to trade one of their most talented young outfielders for an infielder (with a much lower ceiling), only to let the infielder go to waste behind Uribe.
Tomorrow - Positional Previews: Second Base pt. 2 - unraveling the debate at second base. Who is projected to be better offensively? Defensively? Why is Uribe still an option?
6. Cunningham, lf
DOB: 4/24/86
Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, Everett (Washington) JUCO
What he did in 2006: .305/.386/.496 at Low A (402 PA)
The Good: The rare decent bat in the system, Cunningham came on strong in the second half after dealing with a nagging ankle injury early in the year. Quick wrists and a compact swing allow him to make hard contact to all fields. Above-average runner.
The Bad: Below-average outfield skills limit Cunningham to left field, so he'll need to turn some of his many doubles into home runs in order to project as a starter. Better pitch recognition would help in that task.
The Irrelevant: Cunningham was penciled in at every slot but cleanup in the Kannapolis lineup last year for at least one game.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An average corner outfielder.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High. In a system all but void of bats, Cunningham is one of the few bright spots. He'll spend 2007 in the Carolina League.
Christina Kahrl later compared him to Jeff Abbott after the trade - citing his need to add more power, lest he want turn into another forgotten minor league hitting machine.
Richar was blocked by Mark Reynolds, Alberto Callaspo, and Orlando Hudson. There was no room for him, and the Diamondbacks squeezed some value out of him. Cunningham impressed many with the Diamondbacks in 2007, but was shipped to Oakland in the Danny Haren trade.
Joe Sheehan recently said Cunningham may be the best OF in the A's system.
So after giving up the now highly touted Aaron Cunningham to acquire Danny Richar, how can the White Sox not play him in 2008? I have a bad feeling that Ozzie Guillen will find a way. As he showed with Brian Anderson, Ozzie has no problem benching young players in need of MLB AB for below average players (Exhibit A) or out of position bench players (Exhibit B).
I'm horribly disturbed by the idea that the White Sox may give Juan Uribe another opportunity to prove that 2004 was a humongous fluke. Against all sanity, Uribe is said to be in an open competition with Richar and Alexei Ramirez at second base.
Ramirez needs some seasoning before making his big league debut, and should start in either Birmingham or Charlotte. He could debut in June if he tears up the minors, but I'd rather try to maximize his value at SS or CF.
This organization is in no condition to trade one of their most talented young outfielders for an infielder (with a much lower ceiling), only to let the infielder go to waste behind Uribe.
Tomorrow - Positional Previews: Second Base pt. 2 - unraveling the debate at second base. Who is projected to be better offensively? Defensively? Why is Uribe still an option?
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Positional Previews: First Base
Since Paul Konerko joined the White Sox in November of 1998 he has been a solid, above average first baseman who is well rounded in all areas. Outside of a horrid 2003, Konerko has posted an OPS+ above 110 in every season (ranging from the 83 in 2003 to the 136 in 2005). Now 31 (32 on March 5), Konerko is in the midst of the twilight of the average player's peak. Sadly, Konerko may already be past his prime. Because of his lack of athleticism and a poor season in 2007, it's in doubt whether or not the Konerko of 1999-2006 will ever come back. As a first baseman who makes eight figures, his production needs to be elite, and an OPS of .841 in 2007 does not bode well for the future. PECOTA sees a significant decline in store for Konerko, and many baseball writers have opined that a trade of Konerko should be a priority.
At $12 million per year, Konerko is still a bargain in this market. After all, Jose Guillen got $36 million over three years, and he is a journeyman with a bad attitude and lots of PED (performance enhancement drug) baggage. Many assumed Konerko would be shopped this winter, but reports of discussions with the Angels, Rangers, and Diamondbacks were all shot down by sources within the organization. As has been reported Konerko will soon reach 10/5 status - "If a player has been on an active major league roster for ten full seasons and on one team for the last five, he may not be traded to another team without his consent (known as the 10/5 rule)." On April 30, Konerko will be a 10/5 player. With a limited no trade clause, Konerko can still be traded to every team in baseball but six. After April 30, things get dicey.
With three more years left, and Kenny Williams in buy! buy! buy! mode, there was no reason to trade Konerko. The plan is probably to have Konerko slide over to DH either in 2009 or 2010 (assuming Jim Thome retires after 2009, which is a strong possibility), with Swisher taking 1B and (best case scenario) John Shelby moving into CF. Of course, Shelby's development will dictate the way the Sox handle their personnel. Wondering what Konerko will be like in 2009-2010 is scary - many have said that he will not age well.
When mulling the possibility of a "Paulie" trade, one must remember not only the baseball ramifications, but also the reaction of the fanbase. Konerko is one of three guys who the fans would throw a fit over the loss of - Mark Buehrle and Bobby Jenks being the other two. The trading of Konerko would have been, ideally, for 2-3 young prospects, one close to the majors and two guys with high ceilings. Try explaining stocking the farm system and payroll flexibility to some of the yokels you run into at Sox Park. They'll just hoot and holler about the loss of "Paulie!" for some "no-name minor league baller". Trust me, I've run into it. If you do not currently play major league baseball, you will never play major league baseball - that is the attitude of many fans in every fanbase. It's just reality - selling the face of the franchise, despite the reasoning behind it, is a shot in the foot PR-wise. With the rise of the Cubs and the 90 loss season looming, the White Sox could not afford to have a suicidal PR strategy this winter - unless they were hoping for their rise in season ticket holders to fall back to the dismal days of 02-04.
Konerko, at his salary, his production, and his position, will not be a liability. Even with a decline, an above average season in 2009 and possibly in 2010 is very likely. I'd bet my life savings that Konerko will not be an albatross on the payroll in 2010.
Who else could see time at first base in 2007? Nick Swisher seems like the only logical candidate, as he has played there in the past. He will most likely get 10-15 starts there for various reasons.
So what are Konerko's projections like?
PECOTA (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
Well, his OPS falls from a disappointing 2007, and his SLG does not recover either. After a VORP of 25.4 last season, it's surprising that he is projected so low. It'll be interesting when PECOTA cards debut, as their five year forecast for Konerko will not look good. Comparables: Kevin Millar, Gil Hodges, Jeff Conine, Eric Karros
O-U-C-H on those comparables. Well, that's one argument against keeping him.
Marcels (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
That's certainly better than PECOTA's projection, but would still fall short of his 2004-2006 peak. One must remember that the Marcels offensive projections are considered by some to be conservative. I'd say this is an argument for keeping him.
CHONE (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
I'd say this is the projection I find most plausible, as an improved lineup around Konerko should allow him to regain his .500+ SLG%. Another argument for keeping him.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
A rather surprisingly conservative projection from James, as he has been known to project to the extremes quite often. Perhaps the additions to the White Sox after the publishing of his projections would change his mind, as the line-up has given Konerko more talent ahead of him and behind him.
I wouldn't say the days of .900 OPS seasons from Konerko are officially over, just no longer likely. Konerko is now in the twilight of his peak, and should have 2-3 more seasons before becoming a league average performer. One thing is apparent from every projection, the systems do not like the rapid decline his line took last season, and don't foresee another bounce-back season like the one he had in 2004.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Second Base - will Danny Richar keep his spot? Is Juan Uribe a viable option? Will Alexei Ramirez begin the year on the farm or with the big club?
-----
Fields Denies Retirement Report
Scoop Jackson on the Sad State of Chicago Sports
At $12 million per year, Konerko is still a bargain in this market. After all, Jose Guillen got $36 million over three years, and he is a journeyman with a bad attitude and lots of PED (performance enhancement drug) baggage. Many assumed Konerko would be shopped this winter, but reports of discussions with the Angels, Rangers, and Diamondbacks were all shot down by sources within the organization. As has been reported Konerko will soon reach 10/5 status - "If a player has been on an active major league roster for ten full seasons and on one team for the last five, he may not be traded to another team without his consent (known as the 10/5 rule)." On April 30, Konerko will be a 10/5 player. With a limited no trade clause, Konerko can still be traded to every team in baseball but six. After April 30, things get dicey.
With three more years left, and Kenny Williams in buy! buy! buy! mode, there was no reason to trade Konerko. The plan is probably to have Konerko slide over to DH either in 2009 or 2010 (assuming Jim Thome retires after 2009, which is a strong possibility), with Swisher taking 1B and (best case scenario) John Shelby moving into CF. Of course, Shelby's development will dictate the way the Sox handle their personnel. Wondering what Konerko will be like in 2009-2010 is scary - many have said that he will not age well.
When mulling the possibility of a "Paulie" trade, one must remember not only the baseball ramifications, but also the reaction of the fanbase. Konerko is one of three guys who the fans would throw a fit over the loss of - Mark Buehrle and Bobby Jenks being the other two. The trading of Konerko would have been, ideally, for 2-3 young prospects, one close to the majors and two guys with high ceilings. Try explaining stocking the farm system and payroll flexibility to some of the yokels you run into at Sox Park. They'll just hoot and holler about the loss of "Paulie!" for some "no-name minor league baller". Trust me, I've run into it. If you do not currently play major league baseball, you will never play major league baseball - that is the attitude of many fans in every fanbase. It's just reality - selling the face of the franchise, despite the reasoning behind it, is a shot in the foot PR-wise. With the rise of the Cubs and the 90 loss season looming, the White Sox could not afford to have a suicidal PR strategy this winter - unless they were hoping for their rise in season ticket holders to fall back to the dismal days of 02-04.
Konerko, at his salary, his production, and his position, will not be a liability. Even with a decline, an above average season in 2009 and possibly in 2010 is very likely. I'd bet my life savings that Konerko will not be an albatross on the payroll in 2010.
Who else could see time at first base in 2007? Nick Swisher seems like the only logical candidate, as he has played there in the past. He will most likely get 10-15 starts there for various reasons.
So what are Konerko's projections like?
PECOTA (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
.267/.355/.479/.834/17.8/4.2
Well, his OPS falls from a disappointing 2007, and his SLG does not recover either. After a VORP of 25.4 last season, it's surprising that he is projected so low. It'll be interesting when PECOTA cards debut, as their five year forecast for Konerko will not look good. Comparables: Kevin Millar, Gil Hodges, Jeff Conine, Eric Karros
O-U-C-H on those comparables. Well, that's one argument against keeping him.
Marcels (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.280/.363/.499/.862
That's certainly better than PECOTA's projection, but would still fall short of his 2004-2006 peak. One must remember that the Marcels offensive projections are considered by some to be conservative. I'd say this is an argument for keeping him.
CHONE (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.275/.366/.507/.872
I'd say this is the projection I find most plausible, as an improved lineup around Konerko should allow him to regain his .500+ SLG%. Another argument for keeping him.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.275/.360/.501/.861
A rather surprisingly conservative projection from James, as he has been known to project to the extremes quite often. Perhaps the additions to the White Sox after the publishing of his projections would change his mind, as the line-up has given Konerko more talent ahead of him and behind him.
I wouldn't say the days of .900 OPS seasons from Konerko are officially over, just no longer likely. Konerko is now in the twilight of his peak, and should have 2-3 more seasons before becoming a league average performer. One thing is apparent from every projection, the systems do not like the rapid decline his line took last season, and don't foresee another bounce-back season like the one he had in 2004.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Second Base - will Danny Richar keep his spot? Is Juan Uribe a viable option? Will Alexei Ramirez begin the year on the farm or with the big club?
-----
Fields Denies Retirement Report
Scoop Jackson on the Sad State of Chicago Sports
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Positional Previews: Catcher pt. 2
So what are reasonable expectations for White Sox catchers this season? Let's examine the different projections. (Note: I'm not analyzing the projections for Donny Lucy, Cole Armstrong, or Francisco Hernandez)
Marcels (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/GPA*)
*The Hardball Times also has a stat called Gross Production Average, which is judged on a similar scale to that of batting average - .265 average, .300 good, .330 great, etc.
I find this to be a very reasonable projection. A.J. would be bouncing back from a disappointing season, yet not quite hitting his peak he posted in 2006. It's safe to say Pierzynski's batting average will not rebound while playing half his games in a small park like U.S. Cellular; many of his line drives and gap-shots are easily tracked down by defenders, something he did not deal with in the Metrodome.
Again, this is probably a reasonable projection assuming Hall is now 100%. He is also projected for 289 PA. Not bad for a back-up backstop - but I'd still be wary of exercising that 2009 team option.
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
Ouch. What a decline. This is an incredibly harsh projection, but not unforeseen. PECOTA really sees a sharp decline and injury - as he is only projected to have 384 PA. Comparables: Terry Kennedy, Javy Lopez, Greg Myers, John Bateman.
Clearly Marcels was a little more optimistic. Ysh - if that's the line in July, I'd be shocked if Donny Lucy isn't on a plane to Chicago after Hall is issued a pink slip. Comparables: Ray Fosse, Carlos Hernandez, Danny Sheaffer, Sandy Alomar
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Closer to the Marcels projection than PECOTA, and I think it's certainly more realistic. CHONE projects 480 AB.
Also more optimistic than PECOTA, CHONE expects Hall to rebound from last year's horrendous line. The numbers are similar to that of the Marcels projection, and even more optimistic in SLG. CHONE projects 275 AB.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
I'd take this with a grain of salt. James' projections can be absolutely mind boggling sometimes (Exhibit A: Mark Reynolds batting .294 in 490 AB). James expects AJP to have 513 AB.
Similar to the other projections and very realistic. James only expects 138 AB from Hall.
So which projections are the most realistic? I'd say Marcels. I see decline hitting A.J. hard, but I can't imagine his PECOTA line would be that poor. I can't wait for the PECOTA cards - A.J.'s five year forecast will certainly be interesting.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: First Base - Will Konerko begin a rapid decline, or will he rebound from a slightly below average season? Will his 10/5 rights prevent him from being shopped at the deadline?
-----
Sox Pin Hopes on Contreras
Podsednik Officially Signs with Rockies
Scott Merkin's Quick Hits on Spring Training
Marcels (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/GPA*)
*The Hardball Times also has a stat called Gross Production Average, which is judged on a similar scale to that of batting average - .265 average, .300 good, .330 great, etc.
A.J. Pierzynski .270/.320/.420/.740/.250
I find this to be a very reasonable projection. A.J. would be bouncing back from a disappointing season, yet not quite hitting his peak he posted in 2006. It's safe to say Pierzynski's batting average will not rebound while playing half his games in a small park like U.S. Cellular; many of his line drives and gap-shots are easily tracked down by defenders, something he did not deal with in the Metrodome.
Toby Hall .260/.300/.370/.670/.230
Again, this is probably a reasonable projection assuming Hall is now 100%. He is also projected for 289 PA. Not bad for a back-up backstop - but I'd still be wary of exercising that 2009 team option.
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
A.J. Pierzynski .260/.304/.395/.699/3.4/2.6
Ouch. What a decline. This is an incredibly harsh projection, but not unforeseen. PECOTA really sees a sharp decline and injury - as he is only projected to have 384 PA. Comparables: Terry Kennedy, Javy Lopez, Greg Myers, John Bateman.
Toby Hall .243/.280/.345/.625/-2.3/.8
Clearly Marcels was a little more optimistic. Ysh - if that's the line in July, I'd be shocked if Donny Lucy isn't on a plane to Chicago after Hall is issued a pink slip. Comparables: Ray Fosse, Carlos Hernandez, Danny Sheaffer, Sandy Alomar
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
A.J. Pierzynski .267/.317/.419/.735
Closer to the Marcels projection than PECOTA, and I think it's certainly more realistic. CHONE projects 480 AB.
Toby Hall .262/.300/.385/.685
Also more optimistic than PECOTA, CHONE expects Hall to rebound from last year's horrendous line. The numbers are similar to that of the Marcels projection, and even more optimistic in SLG. CHONE projects 275 AB.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
A.J. Pierzynski .277/.323/.427/.750
I'd take this with a grain of salt. James' projections can be absolutely mind boggling sometimes (Exhibit A: Mark Reynolds batting .294 in 490 AB). James expects AJP to have 513 AB.
Toby Hall .254/.295/.370/.664
Similar to the other projections and very realistic. James only expects 138 AB from Hall.
So which projections are the most realistic? I'd say Marcels. I see decline hitting A.J. hard, but I can't imagine his PECOTA line would be that poor. I can't wait for the PECOTA cards - A.J.'s five year forecast will certainly be interesting.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: First Base - Will Konerko begin a rapid decline, or will he rebound from a slightly below average season? Will his 10/5 rights prevent him from being shopped at the deadline?
-----
Sox Pin Hopes on Contreras
Podsednik Officially Signs with Rockies
Scott Merkin's Quick Hits on Spring Training
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Positional Previews: Catcher pt. 1
After a fairly good offensive season in 2006, A.J. Pierzynski came crashing back down to earth in 2007, posting the worst year of his career. His backups didn't perform much better, as the position overall was a glaring weakness on a team that wasn't short in that department. Following the unfortunate and unnecessary injury to Toby Hall in spring training, the White Sox were forced to bring Gustavo Molina north to begin the season. Prior to the injury, there was even talk of a platoon with Hall and Pierzynski, something A.J. did not favor. Going month by month:
April (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Pierzynski - .213/.276/.375/.651 (23 G/20 GS)
Molina - .000/.000/.000/.000 (6 G/3 GS)
Well, I suppose it is unfair to only post the lines of each player, as Molina did manage to knock in a run with a sacrifice fly on April 2nd against Cleveland. Although he only had 10 plate appearances in April, it was a massively futile start for Molina and Pierzynski. Molina suffered from a lack of action and opportunity, something that had to have contributed to his awful line. Pierzynski started more games in April than he had in any other opening month since 2003, as the lack of a competent backup forced his playing time.
May
Pierzynski .299/.321/.519/.840 (22 G/19 GS)
Molina .100/.182/.100/.282 (4 G/4 GS)
Hall .182/.182/.273/.455 (4 G/3 GS)
Pierzynski rebounded very strongly from his awful April to post his best month in the majors this season. Molina stayed on with team until May 17, when he was sent down to make room for Toby Hall, who opted against surgery to repair his torn labrum. Molina would not be seen again for the White Sox in 2007, as he was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles on July 30. Hall's comeback was rushed, as his numbers showed. Pierzynski was sorely in need of rest and Hall didn't fully allow his torn labrum to recover before returning. It was an unnecessary move on Hall's part in a season that was already headed nowhere. Oddly enough, Pierzynski's BABIP was an unlucky .261.
June
Pierzynski .247/.303/.309/.612 (24 G/21 GS)
Hall .167/.167/.167/.333 (8 G/7 GS)
Pierzynski fell on his face in June, posting his worst month of the season. Hall's playing time went up, and he somehow got worse. If not for his 2 year contract, Hall would have been DFA'd in a second. His move to avoid surgery looked even worse in a month without a single XBH/BB.
July
Pierzynski .298/.333/.345/.679 (25 G/20 GS)
Hall .241/.233/.241/.475 (10 G/9 GS)
Pierzynski's average rose as his isoP fell a little bit from the prior month. Hall miraculously had a higher BA than OBP. AJP had his second consecutive month with no HR. How does Toby Hall's decision to forego surgery look at this point?
August
Pierzynski .241/.308/.482/.790 (23 G/21 GS)
Hall .222/.250/.296/.546 (8 G/8 GS)
A.J. posted his second highest SLG of the season, and snapped out of his homer drought with five HR. Hall even had two, count 'em T-W-O, doubles! The man should receive a medal for such production.
September/October
Pierzynski .284/.314/.388/.702 (19 G/15 GS)
Hall .200/.259/.240/.499 (8 G/8 GS)
Lucy .200/.200/.200/.400 (8 G/4 GS)
Pierzynski's finish was non descript, as those numbers are fairly pedestrian for him. Hall continued to steal money from the White Sox. At least this month he drew two walks; I wonder if that earned him an incentive in his contract? Perhaps a $15 bonus? Donny Lucy earned a September call-up, and proceeded to look awfully over-matched. It certainly lowered the bar for his future expectations, but his defensive reputation should allow him to someday become a competent back-up backstop. If Toby can make a career out of it, why not Donny?
Total lines:
Pierzynski .263/.309/.403/.712 VORP: 9.6
Molina* .056/.100/.056/.156 VORP: -4.4
Hall .207/.225/.241/.466 VORP: -9.6
Lucy .200/.200/.200/.400 VORP: -1.7
*Molina's line with White Sox only
VORP = Value Over Replacement Player
Hall posts a -9.6 VORP and makes $1.75 million! Ron Karkovice could have put up that line. Another disappointing year for Pierzynski - certainly one that was not worthy of a September contract extension.
So what can one reasonably expect this season from Pierzynski/Hall? Tomorrow I'll break down reasonable expectations, contractual situations, different projections, and possible call-ups at the position.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews - Catchers pt. 2
-----
Ozzie Guillen and his insatiable desire for smallball
Voros McCracken writes about why Ozzie is wrong
Padres ink Khalil Greene to reasonable extension
April (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Pierzynski - .213/.276/.375/.651 (23 G/20 GS)
Molina - .000/.000/.000/.000 (6 G/3 GS)
Well, I suppose it is unfair to only post the lines of each player, as Molina did manage to knock in a run with a sacrifice fly on April 2nd against Cleveland. Although he only had 10 plate appearances in April, it was a massively futile start for Molina and Pierzynski. Molina suffered from a lack of action and opportunity, something that had to have contributed to his awful line. Pierzynski started more games in April than he had in any other opening month since 2003, as the lack of a competent backup forced his playing time.
May
Pierzynski .299/.321/.519/.840 (22 G/19 GS)
Molina .100/.182/.100/.282 (4 G/4 GS)
Hall .182/.182/.273/.455 (4 G/3 GS)
Pierzynski rebounded very strongly from his awful April to post his best month in the majors this season. Molina stayed on with team until May 17, when he was sent down to make room for Toby Hall, who opted against surgery to repair his torn labrum. Molina would not be seen again for the White Sox in 2007, as he was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles on July 30. Hall's comeback was rushed, as his numbers showed. Pierzynski was sorely in need of rest and Hall didn't fully allow his torn labrum to recover before returning. It was an unnecessary move on Hall's part in a season that was already headed nowhere. Oddly enough, Pierzynski's BABIP was an unlucky .261.
June
Pierzynski .247/.303/.309/.612 (24 G/21 GS)
Hall .167/.167/.167/.333 (8 G/7 GS)
Pierzynski fell on his face in June, posting his worst month of the season. Hall's playing time went up, and he somehow got worse. If not for his 2 year contract, Hall would have been DFA'd in a second. His move to avoid surgery looked even worse in a month without a single XBH/BB.
July
Pierzynski .298/.333/.345/.679 (25 G/20 GS)
Hall .241/.233/.241/.475 (10 G/9 GS)
Pierzynski's average rose as his isoP fell a little bit from the prior month. Hall miraculously had a higher BA than OBP. AJP had his second consecutive month with no HR. How does Toby Hall's decision to forego surgery look at this point?
August
Pierzynski .241/.308/.482/.790 (23 G/21 GS)
Hall .222/.250/.296/.546 (8 G/8 GS)
A.J. posted his second highest SLG of the season, and snapped out of his homer drought with five HR. Hall even had two, count 'em T-W-O, doubles! The man should receive a medal for such production.
September/October
Pierzynski .284/.314/.388/.702 (19 G/15 GS)
Hall .200/.259/.240/.499 (8 G/8 GS)
Lucy .200/.200/.200/.400 (8 G/4 GS)
Pierzynski's finish was non descript, as those numbers are fairly pedestrian for him. Hall continued to steal money from the White Sox. At least this month he drew two walks; I wonder if that earned him an incentive in his contract? Perhaps a $15 bonus? Donny Lucy earned a September call-up, and proceeded to look awfully over-matched. It certainly lowered the bar for his future expectations, but his defensive reputation should allow him to someday become a competent back-up backstop. If Toby can make a career out of it, why not Donny?
Total lines:
Pierzynski .263/.309/.403/.712 VORP: 9.6
Molina* .056/.100/.056/.156 VORP: -4.4
Hall .207/.225/.241/.466 VORP: -9.6
Lucy .200/.200/.200/.400 VORP: -1.7
*Molina's line with White Sox only
VORP = Value Over Replacement Player
Hall posts a -9.6 VORP and makes $1.75 million! Ron Karkovice could have put up that line. Another disappointing year for Pierzynski - certainly one that was not worthy of a September contract extension.
So what can one reasonably expect this season from Pierzynski/Hall? Tomorrow I'll break down reasonable expectations, contractual situations, different projections, and possible call-ups at the position.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews - Catchers pt. 2
-----
Ozzie Guillen and his insatiable desire for smallball
Voros McCracken writes about why Ozzie is wrong
Padres ink Khalil Greene to reasonable extension
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Season Preview: Lineup Construction
There has been fervent debate among Sox fans the last few seasons about the construction of manager Ozzie Guillen's lineup. Based on interaction at the ballpark, calls on sports radio, and message board chatter, it is safe to say that most fans
hope for the second coming of Scott Podsednik - a bantam weight, slap-hitter who will get on base an insufficient time, waste outs with failed stolen base attempts, and post an OPS significantly below league average. Podsednik, now three years removed from an all-star season, has a decent chance to make the Rockies as a fifth OF. Thankfully both he and the organization have moved on, and it appears both the fans and Guillen are sitting on pins and needles for a replacement that can match his noodle arm and propensity for producing outs, not runs. It appears that Jerry Owens fills that void. Owens is fast, and...well, uh, that's it, I guess. He's fast. Great. Sometimes he hits singles? Sometimes he produces enough strength to knock it out of the infield...how about that? As previously expressed, I would deal Jerry for minor league filler - mainly because he is a subpar player, and because I don't want to
tempt Ozzie with his speed. Lord knows the man has a fetish for quick legs. Look down one post for my proposed 25 man roster. This is how I would construct the lineup assuming that my 25 man roster is in place.
Against RHP
2B Danny Richar (L)
CF Nick Swisher (S)
DH Jim Thome (L)
1B Paul Konerko (R)
LF Jermaine Dye (R)
C A.J. Pierzynski (L)
3B Josh Fields (R)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
RF Carlos Quentin (R)
Against LHP
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
LF Nick Swisher (S)
1B Paul Konerko (R)
DH Jermaine Dye (R)
3B Josh Fields (R)
C A.J. Pierzynski (L)
RF Carlos Quentin (R)
CF Ryan Spilborghs (R)
2B Danny Richar (L)
Pitches/Plate Appearance (in descending order)
Swisher 4.25
Thome 4.17
Fields 4.00
Dye 3.98
Richar 3.95
Konerko 3.92
Spilborghs 3.75
Quentin 3.63
Pierzynski 3.42
Cabrera 3.39
Richar was very deliberate and patient his first time up - showing good strike zone discipline and an ability to draw walks. He didn't seem over-matched and showed some decent pop. He saw less pitches as the season and went on, and his isoD dropped to .34 in September. The good news is that his isoP and LD% went up as well. Hopefully he can put it all together, and I see no reason why he can't put up a decent line. I'll get more into his projected lines as soon as PECOTA comes out in the next two weeks (c'mon BP!). So, there's my defense for Richar.
Now, Cabrera's trends show a tendency to hit lefties better - so he gets the nod against southpaws. I would rather have Swisher bat 3rd against lefties, but for that to happen Quentin needs to be moved up to the two hole, something that I think can happen if he shows his capability the first few months. I wouldn't be shocked if he becomes a mainstay in that spot.
All of this is of course assuming that Guillen does not take the bat out of Swisher's hands by forcing him to bunt/hit to the right side. That would be counterproductive, as it was for Tadahito Iguchi in his 2.5 year tenure on the Southside.
Dropping Thome out of the order is a must against lefties, he simply cripples the lineup against southpaws. This maximizes his value by limiting his playing time and keeping his fragile back in good condition. This will preserve his health and allow him to play one more healthy season in 2009.
Everything else is fairly elementary - I will go player by player in my positional previews next week.
I posted my bullpen/rotation yesterday, and those choices were fairly elementary. The only controversial choice may have been keeping Masset around, but the bullpen needs a long man with such an unreliable 3-5 in the rotation.
Enough with the hypothetical rosters/line-ups - it is time to analyze the team without wishful thinking deals that actually improve the team. Next week I will go position by position with the actual personnel, forecasting spring training battles and analyzing the projections of Bill James, PECOTA, and ZiPS.
Tomorrow: Beginning positional previews - catcher. Will Toby Hall rebound? Will A.J. Pierzynski decline or will he see a surge with a healthy backup behind him?
-----
Breaking down the competition in the bullpen
PECOTA's back!
Sox purchase contract of Northern League pitcher Matt Davis
hope for the second coming of Scott Podsednik - a bantam weight, slap-hitter who will get on base an insufficient time, waste outs with failed stolen base attempts, and post an OPS significantly below league average. Podsednik, now three years removed from an all-star season, has a decent chance to make the Rockies as a fifth OF. Thankfully both he and the organization have moved on, and it appears both the fans and Guillen are sitting on pins and needles for a replacement that can match his noodle arm and propensity for producing outs, not runs. It appears that Jerry Owens fills that void. Owens is fast, and...well, uh, that's it, I guess. He's fast. Great. Sometimes he hits singles? Sometimes he produces enough strength to knock it out of the infield...how about that? As previously expressed, I would deal Jerry for minor league filler - mainly because he is a subpar player, and because I don't want to
tempt Ozzie with his speed. Lord knows the man has a fetish for quick legs. Look down one post for my proposed 25 man roster. This is how I would construct the lineup assuming that my 25 man roster is in place.
Against RHP
2B Danny Richar (L)
CF Nick Swisher (S)
DH Jim Thome (L)
1B Paul Konerko (R)
LF Jermaine Dye (R)
C A.J. Pierzynski (L)
3B Josh Fields (R)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
RF Carlos Quentin (R)
Against LHP
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
LF Nick Swisher (S)
1B Paul Konerko (R)
DH Jermaine Dye (R)
3B Josh Fields (R)
C A.J. Pierzynski (L)
RF Carlos Quentin (R)
CF Ryan Spilborghs (R)
2B Danny Richar (L)
Pitches/Plate Appearance (in descending order)
Swisher 4.25
Thome 4.17
Fields 4.00
Dye 3.98
Richar 3.95
Konerko 3.92
Spilborghs 3.75
Quentin 3.63
Pierzynski 3.42
Cabrera 3.39
Richar was very deliberate and patient his first time up - showing good strike zone discipline and an ability to draw walks. He didn't seem over-matched and showed some decent pop. He saw less pitches as the season and went on, and his isoD dropped to .34 in September. The good news is that his isoP and LD% went up as well. Hopefully he can put it all together, and I see no reason why he can't put up a decent line. I'll get more into his projected lines as soon as PECOTA comes out in the next two weeks (c'mon BP!). So, there's my defense for Richar.
Now, Cabrera's trends show a tendency to hit lefties better - so he gets the nod against southpaws. I would rather have Swisher bat 3rd against lefties, but for that to happen Quentin needs to be moved up to the two hole, something that I think can happen if he shows his capability the first few months. I wouldn't be shocked if he becomes a mainstay in that spot.
All of this is of course assuming that Guillen does not take the bat out of Swisher's hands by forcing him to bunt/hit to the right side. That would be counterproductive, as it was for Tadahito Iguchi in his 2.5 year tenure on the Southside.
Dropping Thome out of the order is a must against lefties, he simply cripples the lineup against southpaws. This maximizes his value by limiting his playing time and keeping his fragile back in good condition. This will preserve his health and allow him to play one more healthy season in 2009.
Everything else is fairly elementary - I will go player by player in my positional previews next week.
I posted my bullpen/rotation yesterday, and those choices were fairly elementary. The only controversial choice may have been keeping Masset around, but the bullpen needs a long man with such an unreliable 3-5 in the rotation.
Enough with the hypothetical rosters/line-ups - it is time to analyze the team without wishful thinking deals that actually improve the team. Next week I will go position by position with the actual personnel, forecasting spring training battles and analyzing the projections of Bill James, PECOTA, and ZiPS.
Tomorrow: Beginning positional previews - catcher. Will Toby Hall rebound? Will A.J. Pierzynski decline or will he see a surge with a healthy backup behind him?
-----
Breaking down the competition in the bullpen
PECOTA's back!
Sox purchase contract of Northern League pitcher Matt Davis
Friday, February 1, 2008
Season Preview: Assembling the Roster
Unlike years past, the 2008 Chicago White Sox will enter spring training with a different outlook. After finishing fourth in the AL Central last season, the climb back to the top of the standings appears much more daunting - due in large part to an Indians team that was one win away from the world series, and a Tigers team that made blockbuster moves to acquire Edgar Renteria, Dontrelle Willis, and Miguel Cabrera. The White Sox, who made a few headline moves as
well this offseason, would be much better served if they were in the inferior NL. Sadly, they are in possibly the best division in baseball, and any aspirations to contend should be put on hold for now. Although it would have been wise to tear down and rebuild, GM Kenny Williams instead decided to try to reload. At a serious cost to the minor league system, Williams added Carlos Quentin, Nick Swisher, and Orlando Cabrera through trades. With a newfound emphasis on financial flexibility and OBP, Williams appears to be on his way to righting the ship. Although it will be a long road back to the top of the division, I expect the White Sox to play reasonably respectable baseball, and finish with anywhere between 78-82 wins. Williams is almost done, but there are still some minor tweaks to be made. Let's assemble the 25 man roster.
Transactions
San Francisco Giants: Joe Crede
Chicago White Sox: Fred Lewis
This move is just too obvious. Although recent internet reports have linked the White Sox to guys like Noah Lowry and Matt Cain, that is bunk for opposite reasons. No GM on the face of this earth, not even the god-awful Brian Sabean, best known for his fetish for the old and decrepit players, would trade Cain for anything less than a package that included a young, surefire all-star position player (see: Alex Rios). Lewis is a solid acquisition for a couple different reasons: he fills the void of a true fourth OF on this team and he adds an all around solid player to a bench lacking in any talent. Lewis has no talent that stands out above all others, which prevents him from ever ascending to full-time status. Or as prospect aficionado Kevin Goldstein wrote for BP in 2006:
Lewis lacks that one over-the-top skill to make him an every day player, but he can do so many things that he should carve out a nice career for himself. The Giants have too many outfielders right now for it to start in 2007, however.
He could thrive on the bench and potentially fill a starting role in 2009 or 2010 when Nick Swisher slides over to 1B, Konerko slides to DH, and Thome slides into retirement. Lewis has the capability to play all three OF positions and plays adequate defense at all of them. He is versatile enough to fill the speed role, but has enough punch to pinch-hit at the end of games (which is more than I can say for the current speed guys, Pablo Ozuna and Jerry Owens).
---
St. Louis Cardinals: Jerry Owens
Chicago White Sox: Tyler Greene
Forget Owens' ridiculously abnormal and inflated September statistics - a BABIP of .407 aided his line of .340/.396/.371. I didn't even know it was possible to bat .340 and slug .371 - could you imagine what Adam Dunn's line would look like if he had a BABIP of .407? Good God. Owens is not a CF, not even at U.S. Cellular Field. He has no arm and does not take good reads on the ball - his speed makes up for some of his mistakes, and was the driving force behind his good ranking in +/- defensive statistics. I just have no interest in keeping Owens in the organization. Lewis fills his role quite nicely and is literally better at everything - save possibly base stealing. If you give Ozzie Guillen a guy like Owens, you can count on a lot of pine for Carlos Quentin, something that is counterproductive this season and will be for years to come. Carlos needs plate appearances in the majors right now; he is ready to make the jump and translate his talents in a healthy 2008 campaign. So why would the Cardinals do this? Because they're the Cardinals. They build a team of little leaguers around Pujols and hope for the best. They're a poorly run organization from top to bottom, and I would expect them to salivate at the idea of a bantam weight base-stealer at the top. I'm sure they'd have no problem parting with Greene - who would simply be organizational filler for the White Sox. Someone's gotta play shortstop in Charlotte - and I don't want them to sign the immortal Rey Ordonez to fill the void. Might as well try to groom Greene into a solid backup. This also opens up a key spot on the 40-man roster.
---
Colorado Rockies: Matt Thornton, Brian Anderson
Chicago White Sox: Ryan Spilborghs
It is an absolute must for the White Sox to clear a spot in the bullpen for a swing-man, and this would be the move to do it. This also shores up the bench quite a bit, as Spilborghs put up a fantastic line last season in Colorado (albeit with pretty severe home/away splits). Anderson is the goat of the organization, and I just can't see what else Kenny would do with him. He is clearly fed up with the way the organization has treated him, and it would be best for both to part ways. Thornton is an average relief pitcher who the Sox could do without, especially with LOOGY personified in Boone Logan becoming a more integral part of the 'pen. Spilborghs can solidify the bench and provide a right handed alternative in CF - a key member of the bench that can allow a shift of Thome to bench, Dye/Konerko to DH, and Swisher to LF/1B against southpaws. Spilborghs adds flexibility to the lineup and clears a spot in the bullpen for a long reliever - something that will be necessary with the horrid back-end of the rotation.
-
These are three simple moves that would certainly improve the bench and rid the White Sox of an injured contract (Crede), and curb Ozzie's temptation for speed! speed! speed! at the top of this lineup.
So how would I construct the team?
C: A.J. Pierzynski, Toby Hall
1B: Paul Konerko, Jim Thome
2B: Danny Richar
3B: Josh Fields
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Juan Uribe
OF: Jermaine Dye, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Spilborghs, Fred Lewis
SP: Mark Buehrle
SP: Javier Vazquez
SP: Jose Contreras
SP: John Danks
SP: Gavin Floyd
RP: Bobby Jenks
RP: Octavio Dotel
RP: Scott Linebrink
RP: Ehren Wasserman
RP: Boone Logan
RP: Mike MacDougal
RP: Nick Masset
Where's Pablo Ozuna? Also DFA'd. Old + broken leg + no discernable talent/value + no defense + easy replacements = DFA.
Tomorrow: I will dissect my choices pick by pick and then construct lineups vs. RHP/LHP/fat SP/thin SP/intergalactic SP and the like.
well this offseason, would be much better served if they were in the inferior NL. Sadly, they are in possibly the best division in baseball, and any aspirations to contend should be put on hold for now. Although it would have been wise to tear down and rebuild, GM Kenny Williams instead decided to try to reload. At a serious cost to the minor league system, Williams added Carlos Quentin, Nick Swisher, and Orlando Cabrera through trades. With a newfound emphasis on financial flexibility and OBP, Williams appears to be on his way to righting the ship. Although it will be a long road back to the top of the division, I expect the White Sox to play reasonably respectable baseball, and finish with anywhere between 78-82 wins. Williams is almost done, but there are still some minor tweaks to be made. Let's assemble the 25 man roster.
Transactions
San Francisco Giants: Joe Crede
Chicago White Sox: Fred Lewis
This move is just too obvious. Although recent internet reports have linked the White Sox to guys like Noah Lowry and Matt Cain, that is bunk for opposite reasons. No GM on the face of this earth, not even the god-awful Brian Sabean, best known for his fetish for the old and decrepit players, would trade Cain for anything less than a package that included a young, surefire all-star position player (see: Alex Rios). Lewis is a solid acquisition for a couple different reasons: he fills the void of a true fourth OF on this team and he adds an all around solid player to a bench lacking in any talent. Lewis has no talent that stands out above all others, which prevents him from ever ascending to full-time status. Or as prospect aficionado Kevin Goldstein wrote for BP in 2006:
Lewis lacks that one over-the-top skill to make him an every day player, but he can do so many things that he should carve out a nice career for himself. The Giants have too many outfielders right now for it to start in 2007, however.
He could thrive on the bench and potentially fill a starting role in 2009 or 2010 when Nick Swisher slides over to 1B, Konerko slides to DH, and Thome slides into retirement. Lewis has the capability to play all three OF positions and plays adequate defense at all of them. He is versatile enough to fill the speed role, but has enough punch to pinch-hit at the end of games (which is more than I can say for the current speed guys, Pablo Ozuna and Jerry Owens).
---
St. Louis Cardinals: Jerry Owens
Chicago White Sox: Tyler Greene
Forget Owens' ridiculously abnormal and inflated September statistics - a BABIP of .407 aided his line of .340/.396/.371. I didn't even know it was possible to bat .340 and slug .371 - could you imagine what Adam Dunn's line would look like if he had a BABIP of .407? Good God. Owens is not a CF, not even at U.S. Cellular Field. He has no arm and does not take good reads on the ball - his speed makes up for some of his mistakes, and was the driving force behind his good ranking in +/- defensive statistics. I just have no interest in keeping Owens in the organization. Lewis fills his role quite nicely and is literally better at everything - save possibly base stealing. If you give Ozzie Guillen a guy like Owens, you can count on a lot of pine for Carlos Quentin, something that is counterproductive this season and will be for years to come. Carlos needs plate appearances in the majors right now; he is ready to make the jump and translate his talents in a healthy 2008 campaign. So why would the Cardinals do this? Because they're the Cardinals. They build a team of little leaguers around Pujols and hope for the best. They're a poorly run organization from top to bottom, and I would expect them to salivate at the idea of a bantam weight base-stealer at the top. I'm sure they'd have no problem parting with Greene - who would simply be organizational filler for the White Sox. Someone's gotta play shortstop in Charlotte - and I don't want them to sign the immortal Rey Ordonez to fill the void. Might as well try to groom Greene into a solid backup. This also opens up a key spot on the 40-man roster.
---
Colorado Rockies: Matt Thornton, Brian Anderson
Chicago White Sox: Ryan Spilborghs
It is an absolute must for the White Sox to clear a spot in the bullpen for a swing-man, and this would be the move to do it. This also shores up the bench quite a bit, as Spilborghs put up a fantastic line last season in Colorado (albeit with pretty severe home/away splits). Anderson is the goat of the organization, and I just can't see what else Kenny would do with him. He is clearly fed up with the way the organization has treated him, and it would be best for both to part ways. Thornton is an average relief pitcher who the Sox could do without, especially with LOOGY personified in Boone Logan becoming a more integral part of the 'pen. Spilborghs can solidify the bench and provide a right handed alternative in CF - a key member of the bench that can allow a shift of Thome to bench, Dye/Konerko to DH, and Swisher to LF/1B against southpaws. Spilborghs adds flexibility to the lineup and clears a spot in the bullpen for a long reliever - something that will be necessary with the horrid back-end of the rotation.
-
These are three simple moves that would certainly improve the bench and rid the White Sox of an injured contract (Crede), and curb Ozzie's temptation for speed! speed! speed! at the top of this lineup.
So how would I construct the team?
C: A.J. Pierzynski, Toby Hall
1B: Paul Konerko, Jim Thome
2B: Danny Richar
3B: Josh Fields
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Juan Uribe
OF: Jermaine Dye, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Spilborghs, Fred Lewis
SP: Mark Buehrle
SP: Javier Vazquez
SP: Jose Contreras
SP: John Danks
SP: Gavin Floyd
RP: Bobby Jenks
RP: Octavio Dotel
RP: Scott Linebrink
RP: Ehren Wasserman
RP: Boone Logan
RP: Mike MacDougal
RP: Nick Masset
Where's Pablo Ozuna? Also DFA'd. Old + broken leg + no discernable talent/value + no defense + easy replacements = DFA.
Tomorrow: I will dissect my choices pick by pick and then construct lineups vs. RHP/LHP/fat SP/thin SP/intergalactic SP and the like.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)