"It's an open competition," said White Sox general manager Ken Williams of the battle for second base. "In being consistent with what we are trying to do, we are looking for a player who helps give [manager] Ozzie [Guillen] the best chance to get off to a good start. The player who fits in best wins the job."
If you can stomach reading the article, written almost a month ago, company shill Scott Merkin actually uses Hawk's awful argument that Juan "can carry a team with his bat." That is about the falsest thing I've ever heard. Maybe in April-May of 2004 Uribe carried the White Sox, but since then he has been an abysmal performer. Richar is not guaranteed to be a league average player, but his upside is much higher than Juan's. With Uribe, what you see is what you get - the guy is consistently terrible outside of that smoke and mirrors .833 OPS season he had in 2004. So what are the projections?
*Note: In previous posts I have forgotten to include ZiPS - that will no longer be the case. I will go back and edit those as well. I also only show Plate Appearances if there is reason to - i.e. a significant difference that is the result of a projected injury or playing time issues.
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
Richar - .260/.315/.415/.730/9.8/3.5 (589 PA)It should be noted that Uribe's WARP is skewed by his defensive ratings, which have him performing well at SS. Uribe's defensive value falls through the floor with a move to 2B, as his strong arm is wasted from the keystone position. I see this as a fair assessment of both players, and I expect Richar to possibly outperform that. I could easily see Uribe miss the mark on his numbers and put up a line of .220/.270/.390 that will officially bounce him out of the organization. How much does Danny make? league minimum. How much will Juan make? $4.5 million. Unbelievable.
Uribe - .249/.299/.419/.718/7.2/4.0 (463 PA)
ZiPS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .249/.304/.381/.685This is exceedingly pessimistic of Richar, as he showed an extreme jump in slugging in the month of September. His August numbers would justify such a projection, but not his September stats. This is exceedingly optimistic of Uribe, as he hasn't posted an OPS that high since 2004 - in his aforementioned one hit wonder year. I will eat my hat if either happens.
Uribe - .250/.302/.427/.729
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .252/.304/.401/.705More Richar pessimism met with more Uribe optimism. Perhaps I should send video of Uribe swinging a baseball bat to these fellas. Again - I. will. eat. my. hat.
Uribe - .247/.298/.419/.717
MARCELS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .258/.326/.435/.761Amazingly high projection for Richar, and I can see it happening. His isoD is impressive - and I think it aligns well with his P/PA last season. Uribe with a more rational projection, as I expect something in that range.
Uribe - .244/.290/.412/.702
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Richar - .277/.338/.451/.788I'd be shocked if that projection is not higher than PECOTA's 90th percentile for Richar. That would be an absolute hell of a year for Richar. More of the same for Uribe - low OBP with a decent SLG. There's a pattern here, and it is very easy to follow.
Uribe - .246/.294/.429/.723
Who should start? Richar, Richar, Richar, Richar, Richar! It is a simple decision. PECOTA projects his defense to be absolutely abysmal, but I anticipate he would outperform Uribe at 2b. Uribe's arm wouldn't mean much from that distance.
I expect Alexei Ramirez to be in the mix sometime soon - just not now. He needs to get his feet wet in Birmingham/Charlotte this season. I suspect we'll be hearing from him at SS in 2009. I'll analyze his PECOTA line in the preview for SS.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: SS - was Orlando Cabrera the right guy? Will he be here for more than one season? What about Ramirez?
-----
Season preview from Indiana paper
Tribune article on offense
Typical Merkin knob-slobbing of offseason
No comments:
Post a Comment