Marcels (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/GPA*)
*The Hardball Times also has a stat called Gross Production Average, which is judged on a similar scale to that of batting average - .265 average, .300 good, .330 great, etc.
A.J. Pierzynski .270/.320/.420/.740/.250
I find this to be a very reasonable projection. A.J. would be bouncing back from a disappointing season, yet not quite hitting his peak he posted in 2006. It's safe to say Pierzynski's batting average will not rebound while playing half his games in a small park like U.S. Cellular; many of his line drives and gap-shots are easily tracked down by defenders, something he did not deal with in the Metrodome.
Toby Hall .260/.300/.370/.670/.230
Again, this is probably a reasonable projection assuming Hall is now 100%. He is also projected for 289 PA. Not bad for a back-up backstop - but I'd still be wary of exercising that 2009 team option.
PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)
A.J. Pierzynski .260/.304/.395/.699/3.4/2.6
Ouch. What a decline. This is an incredibly harsh projection, but not unforeseen. PECOTA really sees a sharp decline and injury - as he is only projected to have 384 PA. Comparables: Terry Kennedy, Javy Lopez, Greg Myers, John Bateman.
Toby Hall .243/.280/.345/.625/-2.3/.8
Clearly Marcels was a little more optimistic. Ysh - if that's the line in July, I'd be shocked if Donny Lucy isn't on a plane to Chicago after Hall is issued a pink slip. Comparables: Ray Fosse, Carlos Hernandez, Danny Sheaffer, Sandy Alomar
CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
A.J. Pierzynski .267/.317/.419/.735
Closer to the Marcels projection than PECOTA, and I think it's certainly more realistic. CHONE projects 480 AB.
Toby Hall .262/.300/.385/.685
Also more optimistic than PECOTA, CHONE expects Hall to rebound from last year's horrendous line. The numbers are similar to that of the Marcels projection, and even more optimistic in SLG. CHONE projects 275 AB.
Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
A.J. Pierzynski .277/.323/.427/.750
I'd take this with a grain of salt. James' projections can be absolutely mind boggling sometimes (Exhibit A: Mark Reynolds batting .294 in 490 AB). James expects AJP to have 513 AB.
Toby Hall .254/.295/.370/.664
Similar to the other projections and very realistic. James only expects 138 AB from Hall.
So which projections are the most realistic? I'd say Marcels. I see decline hitting A.J. hard, but I can't imagine his PECOTA line would be that poor. I can't wait for the PECOTA cards - A.J.'s five year forecast will certainly be interesting.
Tomorrow: Positional Previews: First Base - Will Konerko begin a rapid decline, or will he rebound from a slightly below average season? Will his 10/5 rights prevent him from being shopped at the deadline?
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1 comment:
Dude, whats up with the lack of updates?
Also, I kind of like Armstrong as our backup catcher...Just sayin.
Not like there will be much production out of the spot anyway, and he looks solid.
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