Positional Previews: First Base

Since Paul Konerko joined the White Sox in November of 1998 he has been a solid, above average first baseman who is well rounded in all areas. Outside of a horrid 2003, Konerko has posted an OPS+ above 110 in every season (ranging from the 83 in 2003 to the 136 in 2005). Now 31 (32 on March 5), Konerko is in the midst of the twilight of the average player's peak. Sadly, Konerko may already be past his prime. Because of his lack of athleticism and a poor season in 2007, it's in doubt whether or not the Konerko of 1999-2006 will ever come back. As a first baseman who makes eight figures, his production needs to be elite, and an OPS of .841 in 2007 does not bode well for the future. PECOTA sees a significant decline in store for Konerko, and many baseball writers have opined that a trade of Konerko should be a priority.

At $12 million per year, Konerko is still a bargain in this market. After all, Jose Guillen got $36 million over three years, and he is a journeyman with a bad attitude and lots of PED (performance enhancement drug) baggage. Many assumed Konerko would be shopped this winter, but reports of discussions with the Angels, Rangers, and Diamondbacks were all shot down by sources within the organization. As has been reported Konerko will soon reach 10/5 status - "If a player has been on an active major league roster for ten full seasons and on one team for the last five, he may not be traded to another team without his consent (known as the 10/5 rule)." On April 30, Konerko will be a 10/5 player. With a limited no trade clause, Konerko can still be traded to every team in baseball but six. After April 30, things get dicey.

With three more years left, and Kenny Williams in buy! buy! buy! mode, there was no reason to trade Konerko. The plan is probably to have Konerko slide over to DH either in 2009 or 2010 (assuming Jim Thome retires after 2009, which is a strong possibility), with Swisher taking 1B and (best case scenario) John Shelby moving into CF. Of course, Shelby's development will dictate the way the Sox handle their personnel. Wondering what Konerko will be like in 2009-2010 is scary - many have said that he will not age well.

When mulling the possibility of a "Paulie" trade, one must remember not only the baseball ramifications, but also the reaction of the fanbase. Konerko is one of three guys who the fans would throw a fit over the loss of - Mark Buehrle and Bobby Jenks being the other two. The trading of Konerko would have been, ideally, for 2-3 young prospects, one close to the majors and two guys with high ceilings. Try explaining stocking the farm system and payroll flexibility to some of the yokels you run into at Sox Park. They'll just hoot and holler about the loss of "Paulie!" for some "no-name minor league baller". Trust me, I've run into it. If you do not currently play major league baseball, you will never play major league baseball - that is the attitude of many fans in every fanbase. It's just reality - selling the face of the franchise, despite the reasoning behind it, is a shot in the foot PR-wise. With the rise of the Cubs and the 90 loss season looming, the White Sox could not afford to have a suicidal PR strategy this winter - unless they were hoping for their rise in season ticket holders to fall back to the dismal days of 02-04.

Konerko, at his salary, his production, and his position, will not be a liability. Even with a decline, an above average season in 2009 and possibly in 2010 is very likely. I'd bet my life savings that Konerko will not be an albatross on the payroll in 2010.

Who else could see time at first base in 2007? Nick Swisher seems like the only logical candidate, as he has played there in the past. He will most likely get 10-15 starts there for various reasons.
So what are Konerko's projections like?

PECOTA (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)

.267/.355/.479/.834/17.8/4.2

Well, his OPS falls from a disappointing 2007, and his SLG does not recover either. After a VORP of 25.4 last season, it's surprising that he is projected so low. It'll be interesting when PECOTA cards debut, as their five year forecast for Konerko will not look good. Comparables: Kevin Millar, Gil Hodges, Jeff Conine, Eric Karros
O-U-C-H on those comparables. Well, that's one argument against keeping him.

Marcels (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)

.280/.363/.499/.862

That's certainly better than PECOTA's projection, but would still fall short of his 2004-2006 peak. One must remember that the Marcels offensive projections are considered by some to be conservative. I'd say this is an argument for keeping him.

CHONE (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)

.275/.366/.507/.872

I'd say this is the projection I find most plausible, as an improved lineup around Konerko should allow him to regain his .500+ SLG%. Another argument for keeping him.

Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)

.275/.360/.501/.861

A rather surprisingly conservative projection from James, as he has been known to project to the extremes quite often. Perhaps the additions to the White Sox after the publishing of his projections would change his mind, as the line-up has given Konerko more talent ahead of him and behind him.

I wouldn't say the days of .900 OPS seasons from Konerko are officially over, just no longer likely. Konerko is now in the twilight of his peak, and should have 2-3 more seasons before becoming a league average performer. One thing is apparent from every projection, the systems do not like the rapid decline his line took last season, and don't foresee another bounce-back season like the one he had in 2004.

Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Second Base - will Danny Richar keep his spot? Is Juan Uribe a viable option? Will Alexei Ramirez begin the year on the farm or with the big club?
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