Positional Previews: Shortstop

On November 20, 2007, the Chicago White Sox shipped Jon Garland to the Los Angeles Angels for Orlando Cabrera. The move was widely criticized by many Sox fans, as they had fallen in love with Garland during his back to back 18 win seasons in 2005 and 2006. Many had figured any deal involving Garland would bring back 1-2 major league ready prospects and more minor league talent. With his low K rate and one year left on his contract, Garland's value was much lower than originally thought. As a one for one swap (with the Angels throwing in $1.5 million)it was an alright move, as Cabrera should garner Type A status while Garland will most likely be Type B. The move looked poor as it came soon after Juan Uribe was resigned. As expected Kenny Williams is having trouble finding a suitor for Uribe, as not many teams find his lazy defense and poor offense attractive at the price tag. The Orioles are rumored to be scouting Uribe this spring. As Rotoworld reported this morning:

The Chicago Tribune reports that the Orioles "will scout" Juan Uribe in case they aren't ready to make Luis Hernandez their starting shortstop.
Hernandez is first in line to replace Miguel Tejada, but there's little in his minor league track record to suggest that he'd be anything but one of the league's worst hitters. Uribe is no great shakes either at this point and his defense has slipped, but he may look like the more appealing option by the end of camp. Feb. 14 - 10:34 am et
Source: Chicago Tribune

The return shouldn't exceed what was had in the deal for Tadahito Iguchi last July.

Where Williams could go wrong is inking Cabrera to an extension - as the 33 year old shortstop is a sure bet to decline rapidly in the next three years. Letting him walk and reaping the draft picks is undoubtedly the best decision. With Alexei Ramirez waiting in the wings, it would be a good move to let him move on to another team willing to pay an aging shortstop.

With the job firmly in Cabrera's hands, what are reasonable expectations for his production?

PECOTA (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)

.269/.323/.372/.695/8.1/4.2

At the very least, Cabrera bested Garland in WARP - as Garland's was only 3.4. This is a very frightening projection, as an OPS that low is a frightening proposition. His comps were extremely interesting, and aren't worth mentioning.

ZiPS (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/VORP/WARP)

.276/.330/.372/.702

I hope this is an off year for the guys at BTF - but I have my doubts. This is extremely pessimistic, but what else is there to expect from a 33 year old shortstop coming off a career year. Regression to the mean exemplified.


Marcels (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)

.273/.330/.393/.723

Ouch. That hurts. They rank his OPS behind such infamous hitting machines as Ryan Theriot, Jack Wilson, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Eckstein. If that is his line, we better hope and pray for a generous Elias Sports Bureau.

CHONE (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)

.276/.332/.394/.726

Much like Marcels - ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch. This line just screams no. 9 hitter. We would have been better off picking up Adam Everett for peanuts.

Bill James: Baseball Info Solutions (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)

.273/.326/.383/.709

I'm sensing a pattern. Why Kenny, why? And to think there were rumors in the summer about a Garland for Edgar Renteria swap. Oy veigh.

Are the White Sox better off with Cabrera? Not sure. I'm not sure I'll ever know.

Tomorrow: Positional Previews: Third Base - who will start - Josh Fields or Joe Crede?
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