Season Preview: Lineup Construction

There has been fervent debate among Sox fans the last few seasons about the construction of manager Ozzie Guillen's lineup. Based on interaction at the ballpark, calls on sports radio, and message board chatter, it is safe to say that most fans
hope for the second coming of Scott Podsednik - a bantam weight, slap-hitter who will get on base an insufficient time, waste outs with failed stolen base attempts, and post an OPS significantly below league average. Podsednik, now three years removed from an all-star season, has a decent chance to make the Rockies as a fifth OF. Thankfully both he and the organization have moved on, and it appears both the fans and Guillen are sitting on pins and needles for a replacement that can match his noodle arm and propensity for producing outs, not runs. It appears that Jerry Owens fills that void. Owens is fast, and...well, uh, that's it, I guess. He's fast. Great. Sometimes he hits singles? Sometimes he produces enough strength to knock it out of the infield...how about that? As previously expressed, I would deal Jerry for minor league filler - mainly because he is a subpar player, and because I don't want to
tempt Ozzie with his speed. Lord knows the man has a fetish for quick legs. Look down one post for my proposed 25 man roster. This is how I would construct the lineup assuming that my 25 man roster is in place.

Against RHP
2B Danny Richar (L)
CF Nick Swisher (S)
DH Jim Thome (L)
1B Paul Konerko (R)
LF Jermaine Dye (R)
C A.J. Pierzynski (L)
3B Josh Fields (R)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
RF Carlos Quentin (R)

Against LHP
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
LF Nick Swisher (S)
1B Paul Konerko (R)
DH Jermaine Dye (R)
3B Josh Fields (R)
C A.J. Pierzynski (L)
RF Carlos Quentin (R)
CF Ryan Spilborghs (R)
2B Danny Richar (L)

Pitches/Plate Appearance (in descending order)
Swisher 4.25
Thome 4.17
Fields 4.00
Dye 3.98
Richar 3.95
Konerko 3.92
Spilborghs 3.75
Quentin 3.63
Pierzynski 3.42
Cabrera 3.39

Richar was very deliberate and patient his first time up - showing good strike zone discipline and an ability to draw walks. He didn't seem over-matched and showed some decent pop. He saw less pitches as the season and went on, and his isoD dropped to .34 in September. The good news is that his isoP and LD% went up as well. Hopefully he can put it all together, and I see no reason why he can't put up a decent line. I'll get more into his projected lines as soon as PECOTA comes out in the next two weeks (c'mon BP!). So, there's my defense for Richar.

Now, Cabrera's trends show a tendency to hit lefties better - so he gets the nod against southpaws. I would rather have Swisher bat 3rd against lefties, but for that to happen Quentin needs to be moved up to the two hole, something that I think can happen if he shows his capability the first few months. I wouldn't be shocked if he becomes a mainstay in that spot.

All of this is of course assuming that Guillen does not take the bat out of Swisher's hands by forcing him to bunt/hit to the right side. That would be counterproductive, as it was for Tadahito Iguchi in his 2.5 year tenure on the Southside.

Dropping Thome out of the order is a must against lefties, he simply cripples the lineup against southpaws. This maximizes his value by limiting his playing time and keeping his fragile back in good condition. This will preserve his health and allow him to play one more healthy season in 2009.

Everything else is fairly elementary - I will go player by player in my positional previews next week.

I posted my bullpen/rotation yesterday, and those choices were fairly elementary. The only controversial choice may have been keeping Masset around, but the bullpen needs a long man with such an unreliable 3-5 in the rotation.

Enough with the hypothetical rosters/line-ups - it is time to analyze the team without wishful thinking deals that actually improve the team. Next week I will go position by position with the actual personnel, forecasting spring training battles and analyzing the projections of Bill James, PECOTA, and ZiPS.

Tomorrow: Beginning positional previews - catcher. Will Toby Hall rebound? Will A.J. Pierzynski decline or will he see a surge with a healthy backup behind him?
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Breaking down the competition in the bullpen
PECOTA's back!
Sox purchase contract of Northern League pitcher Matt Davis